Soccer Betting System

There are so many different soccer betting systems available today that you will be forgiven for being confused which ones work and which ones are just scams.

The problem is that most of these so called systems are scams. An idea was backtested and it produced a positive result – so now all of a sudden it is a new football betting system. The creators conveniently forget to mention that it is flawed, and only with in depth analytical work can that be spotted – not something we punters want to do.

The systems that actually work normally require you to have a good understanding of the teams in the league, following form, injuries, etc. If you like soccer and numbers then great. If not, hmm…

So is there a soccer betting system that you can follow without drowning in stats and numbers?

Yes, there is.

It is a “lay the draw” system. Some of you might have heard of it and might even have tried it with no success. However, keep an open mind, because we are going to look at a slight variation of the system.

A lay the draw system does what it says – it lays the draw on a betting exchange (more often than not Betfair). That means that if it is a draw you lose your money, but if a team wins (any team) you make money.

Let’s look at an example: Team A plays Team B. Odds for a draw is 3.4 (International Odds). That means if you lay $10, you can either win $10 if the game does not end in a draw, or you lose $24 = (3.4 – 1) x $10.

Now if you look at the stats a match ends in a draw about 25% of the time, depending on what league you look at. So if you always lay 3.4 odds you will make a little bit of money over the long term, but hardly enough to justify the effort. We need a way to swing the numbers in our favor even more.

Did you know that less than 10% of matches end in a 0-0 draw, where no goal is scored (the exact numbers depend on the league)? So it makes sense to only bet on the fact that a match will have a goal scored. We are also going to use a bit of arbitrage to make the betting even more attractive.

So lets look at the actual steps to take:

Identify a match where either one team is significantly stronger than the other or where both teams are very strong and regularly score a number of goals every game. Check out the daily picks of the Football Trading System for games to bet on.
Make sure that laying the draw odds are not too high – We normally jump on anything lower than 3.5, but will go up to 3.9 if it is a big mismatch between teams.
Lay the draw.
Follow the game and as soon as the first goal is scored back the draw.
Collect profit at the end of the game.

Let’s look at an example:

Before the game starts the odds are as follows:

	Back	Lay
Team A	1.9	2.0
Team B	3.6	3.7
Draw	3.5	3.6

You lay the draw for $100 (so your total exposure is (3.6 – 1) x $100 = $260

40 minutes into the game Team A scores a goal and the odds change to the following:

	Back	Lay
Team A	1.3	1.4
Team B	5.6	5.7
Draw	4.6	4.7

Now you back the draw. The amount you back depends on your strategy:

If you back it for $72.22 you make $27.78 ($100 – $72.22) if any team wins and $0 ($72.22 x 3.6 – $260) if it is a draw.
If you back it for $100 you make $0 ($100 – $72.22) if any team wins and $100 ($100 x 3.6 - $260) if it is a draw.
If you back it for $78 you make $22 ($100 – $78) if any team wins and $20.80 ($78 x 3.6 – $260) if it is a draw.

If you just don’t know which games to pick, why not get the Football Trading System, where they not only give you a more advanced version of the above strategy, but also give you DAILY PICKS OF GAMES TO BET on!

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